Warsaw Summit and Region’s Future

Zayd Ala’zamy

Translated by Shaimaa Shedeed

Triangle of Warsaw Summit can be deemed as a historical turning point on the level of Middle East future as it was a historical gathering for states had consensus on some important issues topped by the danger of Iranian power in the region and the necessity of reaching decisive resolutions relevant to all postponed files and out broken wars that made the Middle East an unstable field about to explode any time and a pace for international and regional wars about to outbreak at once. It also heralded a birth of a Middle East strategic alliance in case another consensus on the priorities of the summit can be reached. Some of these most significant priorities are the Iranian danger, Israeli-Palestinian conflict and wars in Yemen and Syria.

The pivot of Warsaw Summit was the Middle East in general and Iran in specific. Through the summit events, it was evidenced that Donald Trump administration is currently seeking for forming a new international alliance targeting the revival of stability in the region. US Secretary for State Mark Pompeo believed that the first step in this regard should be facing Tehran and its power and wrecking its missile and nuclear capability that reinforces its power and makes it a source of threat for the US allies and interests on the international and regional levels.

Believing that Iran is the main menace for the Middle East region was clear in the summit interventions, especially these interventions of the US President and the US Secretary of State. Both blamed the terrorism that made Middle East arena on the brink of war on Tehran due to its military tools and militias. Tehran threat and its systematized attempts to export the terroristic revolution for the entire world were points of agreement among all attendees, states’ representatives and governments’ representatives.

Meeting of more than 60 states to face the terrorism of Iranian regime in the region represented a watershed in the international consensus track against the pivot of Russia that supports Tehran and its insinuating policies in the Middle East. Such consensus specially on the regional level represents a real challenge for the Iranian regime that began to realize that the regional stifle actually began to increase in away worsening its situation more and more and that the state of siege began to take an international trait amid a European prevarication to find a financial exit helping Iran in the most severest economic crisis that is adjudged to be even severer than the Iranian-Iraqi war.

Atmosphere of Warsaw Conference is similar to that phase of establishing the international gathering of thirty states that could got Iraqi forces out of Kuwait in 1991 or the international alliance that toppled Taliban in 2002 and then invaded Baghdad in 2003. That meeting of more than 60 states means that the military gathering capability exceeds even the NATO military capability, especially if we add the regional forces that target in 2019 suppressing the Iranian terroristic activities in the region.

Outcomes of Warsaw Conference unleashed the US administration and its international and regional allies to change the Iranian system and to siege its power in the region. Consequently, the first steps in this regard should be trod in Iraq that is full of unmanageable militias and that represents the nearest field to Iran. In fact, Warsaw Summit disclosed a reality telling about a US strategy towards Iran intending the entrenchment of the Iranian leverage in the region in order to be a normal state without any talk about toppling the Khamenei regime and the clerical rule, which is considered a significant shift believed to have political and security repercussions in the Middle East.

The strong merit of the US in Warsaw Summit doesn’t only lie in the number of states supporting the conference’s outcomes but in the US internal consensus between the democratic and republican parties. Although most of Trump’s decisions usually meet objections and inquiries in the Congress and the Senate, Warsaw Summit was accepted and approved internally on the political and public level, which is quite similar to the official support to expel Iraqi forces from Kuwait in 1991.

We can say that the new point with Warsaw is the shift in terms of international alliance task. It have been shifted from a war against ISIS to a war against the Iranian leverage in the region, especially after the US had intensified all capacities in deployed camps in Iraq described by Trump as a standpoint for watching Iran. Nevertheless, Warsaw Summit changed the mission from being on logistic intelligence level to security strategic one. Moreover, this summit also paved the way for a regional acceptance to form a new alliance including Israel against Iran after it was mere press leaks. Actually, there is a public support to the alliance’s tendencies whoever its members in a bid to face the Iranian evil.

Despite the ideological disparities among Warsaw Summit poles, the geopolitical challenges forced all to seat around one table in order to search the region’s future. Thus, year of 2019 is expected to be the year of decisiveness in all outstanding issues in the Middle East and will result in a comprehensive and constructive stability.

However, in order complete the change tools in the region that were launched from Warsaw, political opposition fronts should be established in the states of the Iranian leverages and  should be supported by the US and its allies. This political opposition’s mission should be drafting a roadmap for the post-IMIS, Houthi, and Hezbollah stage in order to prevent any vacuum on the level of power, which may lead to more internal conflict. Change experiments in different locations in the region such as Iraq in 2003 wasn’t preceded with a clear plan which resulted in what we call creative chaos. Today, such chaos won’t pour neither in the region’s nor the US’s interest. Hence, mulling for the change begins with preparing the alternatives ensuring the stability and preventing that confusing chaos that negatively impacts the region’s future.

 

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